Right before the European 2024 Elections, the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD), associated in the Identity and Democracy (ID) Group has made headlines as an assistant of one of the Members of European Parliament has been arrested accused of espionage for China (More and Marsh, 2024). However, one cannot accuse the ID group of a united pro-China stance - as the group is strongly divided on the issue. It poses thus a question, whether (or how) the predicted win of the far-right parties in the upcoming elections (Mackenzie and Coi, 2024) will change the European Union’s stand on China. In light of the upcoming European Union Parliamentary Elections, this article will focus on analysing the Identity and Democracy Group’s standpoint on China regarding issues of human rights abuses allegations, Taiwan and broader geopolitics. As there is limited media coverage of the ID position towards China, this article analyses the latter by assessing written explanations by MEPs, proposed amendments, and transcripts of speeches. While spying accusations against an assistant of an ID-Germany MEP resulted in more coverage on the topic, news outlets still fail to offer a deeper analysis of ID’s approach towards China - if anything, only AfD’s approach. The standpoint of the ID Group seems to be divided on the topic of China, resulting in lack of voting discipline.
Against Immigration, the Green Deal and the EU
The Identity and Democracy (ID) Group is the sixth biggest group, consisting of 59 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from eight Member States, mainly from Italy (Lega), France (Rassemblement National), Germany (Alternative für Deutschland), but also from Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Denmark and Czechia. In Italy and France, ID was the most popular party in the 2019 elections (Europe Elects, 2019). Marco Zanni from Lega is the chair of the group.
It is a far-right Eurosceptic party whose main aim is to limit immigration to the EU, which the Group calls their ‘fundamental principle’ in the Group’s manifesto (Identity and Democracy, 2019). They believe that the EU is based on Christian values and that immigration to the EU could fundamentally change that,thus leading to the ‘Islamisation’ of Europe. ID emphasises the importance of nation-states and thus opposes further integration within the EU and ‘evolution towards a European superstate’ (Identity and Democracy, 2019). ID opposes further transfer of competencies to the EU and believes that the current legal set-up of the EU already takes away too much sovereignty from Member States. They also fiercely oppose the European Green Deal, calling it unrealistic in its targets and devastating to the EU economy (Zanni, 2023a; Zanni, 2024).
The ID voter profile comprises mostly of the so-called ‘left-behind’ - people who perceive that they did not benefit from European integration or globalisation and people who are against immigration (Maftean, 2024). Currently, the ID also appeals to people who are against the European Green Deal, including farmers who recently were protesting all over the EU against the Green Deal (Zanni, 2024).
A divided position towards China
The ID group lacks party discipline, and thus on various issues, ID MEPs might have different opinions (Folkman, 2024). Unlike most of other EP Groups, ID MEPs mostly follow national allegiances when voting on different issues, including on China, as they believe that the EU should be a group of individual sovereign European states (Identity and Democracy, 2019). ID, therefore, presents a united front on only a selected number of issues (such as immigration) but in other aspects, MEPs vote in line with its national party, or personal, standpoints.
For example, in the voting on the resolution on Chinese countersanctions on EU entities and MEPs and MPs (2021/2644(RSP)), all Italian ID MEPs voted in favour, while all French and German ID MEPs abstained from voting. Similarly, when voting on the resolution on the abduction of Tibetan children and forced assimilation practices through Chinese boarding schools in Tibet (2023/3025(RSP)) and earlier on the resolution on forced labour and the situation of the Uyghurs in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (2020/2913(RSP)), all Italian ID MEPs voted in favour, while all German and French ID MEPs abstained. Other groups, such as EPP, S&D, Renew or Greens voted nearly unanimously on both resolutions.
In the voting on the resolution on the PRC national security law for Hong Kong and the need for the EU to defend Kong Kong’s high degree of autonomy (2020/2665(RSP)) a slightly different phenomenon occurred: while Italian ID MEPs were again in favour, and French abstained, all German MEPs were against the resolution. On the resolution on the security and defence implications of China’s influence on critical infrastructure in the European Union (2023/2072(INI)) the German ID MEPs were divided, with two of them voting in favourwhile the rest abstained. In a word, ID did not manage to unite its representatives, instead presenting a lack of unity.
Voting by the Identity and Democracy Group on selected EP resolutions | |||
Resolution | In favour | Abstained | Against |
Resolution on forced labour and the situation of the Uyghurs in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (2020/2913(RSP)) | Austrian, Belgian, Finish, Italian | French, German, Czech | Czech, Dutch |
Resolution on the PRC national security law for Hong Kong and the need for the EU to defend Kong Kong’s high degree of autonomy (2020/2665(RSP)) | Belgian, Estonian, French, Italian | Austrian, Denish, Finnish, French | Czech, Dutch, German |
Resolution on Chinese countersanctions on EU entities and MEPs and MPs (2021/2644(RSP)) | Austrian, Belgian, Estonian, Italian | French, German | Czech, Dutch |
Resolution on the abduction of Tibetan children and forced assimilation practices through Chinese boarding schools in Tibet (2023/3025(RSP)) | Belgian, Italian | Austrian, Czech, Danish, French, German, | |
Resolution on the security and defence implications of China’s influence on critical infrastructure in the European Union (2023/2072(INI)) | Belgian, Denish, Estonian, French 2 German, Italian, | Austrian, Czech, Germany |
It is important for the analysis of the ID policy towards China, as such a policy is not unanimous. Numerous French MEPs have mentioned that they are against following the US in shaping the foreign policy of the EU (i.e., Jamet, 2024; Mariani, 2021; Mariani, 2023), while Italian MEPs seem to be more in favour of maintaining close ties with the US (Zanni, 2023b). ID-Italy stands for a common and more assertive policy against China, while understanding that close cooperation with China is necessary (Zanni, 2023c; Lizzi, 2023), while ID-Germany is less assertive. For example, in his speech during the debate on EU-China relations, Maximilian Krah warned against ‘decoupling’ (Krah, 2023). He argued that sanctions and economic warfare do not benefit the EU, but rather will lead to recession (Krah, 2023). Moreover, French and Austrian MEPs stress that each country should shape their foreign policy, rather than have one EU foreign policy (Mariani 2021; Beigneux, 2021; Mayer, 2021). This is yet another example of a lack of common agenda or direction.
Contradictory Views of Human Rights in China
The group is also divided on the topic of human rights in China. Regarding the accusation of human rights abuses against Uyghurs in Xinjiang, German MEP Maximilian Krah in his written explanation argued that China does not discriminate against the entire group, but only individuals, and that in this way China is fighting Islamic terrorism in the region (Krah, 209). A similar concern was expressed by Virginie Joron from France in her written explanation, also citing the Islamic terrorism threat (Joron, 2019). On the contrary, the ID-Italy MEPs Marco Zanni and Marco Campomenosi (2023) in their written question to the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (HR), asked if the HR would meet with the Governor of Xinjiang, citing human right violations.
Similarly, MEPs Zanni and Krah do not agree on the issue of Hong Kong (EP resolution 2020/2665(RSP)). Maximilian Krah voted against the resolution, arguing that it is China’s internal politics issue and he does not wish to interfere in a country's domestic politics (Krah, 2020), whereas Marco Zanni argued that Hong Kong's autonomy is under attack and that China repeatedly violates human rights and prosecutes its political opponents (Zanni, 2020). Christine Anderson (2020), also from Germany-ID, voted against the resolution as she argued that it is more important to upkeep the trade links with China, although she admitted she does not support the actions of authorities against protestors.
The Issue of Taiwan
On the issue of Taiwan, the group is also divided. While the entire party agrees with the ‘One-China’ policy, some prefer a somewhat more assertive policy towards China. After US Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022, China responded with military exercises near the island. French ID MEPs argued that Pelosi was an instigator and a provocateur, accusing the US of fueling the tensions in the region (Jamet, 2022; Beigneux, 2022) while ID-Italy seemed more focused on condemning the aggressive response from China rather than on accusing the US of provocation (Zanni, 2022).
Italian MEPs in their question to the High Representative, however, mentioned that China has ‘expansionary aims’ regarding Taiwan which could result in a ‘military escalation’, and that Taiwan is a ‘peaceful, democratic country which shares European values’ (Zanni, Campomenosi, Bonfrisco, et al., 2022). It might thus suggest that the Italian ID MEPs are more in favour of maintaining the status quo. Moreover, the group’s chair Zanni in one of his proposed amendments, called for a deeper cooperation to avoid military escalation in the Taiwan Strait and emphasised strong support for the Taiwanese democracy and free market (Bonfrisco, Ceccardi, Zanni, 2023a).
Expansionist China or Sovereign Decisions?
ID-Italy expressed concern about the ‘expansionist’ Chinese policy in the Indo-Pacific region, calling it ‘growing strategic, geopolitical, economic and commercial challenges’ in the region (Bonfrisco, Ceccardi, Zanni, 2021). On the contrary, ID-France believes that the EU does not have interests in the Indo-Pacific region, as only France has its territories there and France’s interests might differ from those of the EU (Rivière and Mariani, 2021). It thus suggests that while ID-Italy would agree to a common, assertive policy in the region, ID-France again does not want to have a common foreign policy.
Similarly, the group does not have a common approach towards China’s growing influence in Western Balkans. ID-Italy proposed to take measures in the region to counter ‘malign foreign interference and activities’ of - among others - China (Bonfrisco, Ceccardi, Zanni, 2023b), while ID-France called for respecting Serbia’s sovereignty in conducting its foreign policy (Rivière and Mariani, 2021)
2024 EU election predictions
In the upcoming elections, the ID is predicted to gain more seats, even as much as 89 in the 751-seat European Parliament (EP) (Mackenzie and Coi, 2024). As the Group lacks unanimity in voting, it is hard to predict its general view on policies, and thus depending on which national party gains more seats in the tenth legislature, the group’s general standpoint might change. For example, in Italy, Lega is predicted to gain only 9% of the votes (7 seats), a dramatic decline from 36% (22 seats) in 2019 (Europe Elects, 2024).
To complicate matters for ID, two of its largest parties are at loggerheads. France's Rassemblement National (RN), until now the largest delegation in the ID group in the European Parliament, is predicted to gain 27 seats, up from 18 in 2019. However, the RN recently announced its split with its German counterparts of AfD, due to comments made by the German candidate seemingly condoning Nazism (Messad, 2024). The AfD is also expected to jump to 19 seats, up from 9 (Europe Elects, 2024).
Moreover, the Dutch affiliate, Partij voor de Vrijheid - The Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, recently won the general elections in the Netherlands in 2023. They currently do not have any MEPs, but are predicted to win the elections gaining 8 seats. PVV seems to follow the Italian path of more assertive policies towards China analysing its policy description about China (Partij voor de Vrijheid, 2019), however it is yet to be seen as there is little coverage of PVV’s stance on China. There are also new seats predicted for affiliated parties from Croatia (one seat), Portugal (4 seats), Poland (3 seats) (Europe Elects, 2024), however it is also yet to be seen how they will be voting and what their standpoint on China will be.
The ID has also expressed its willingness to invite the Hungarian Fidesz Party to join ID (Neubert, 2024). Currently, Fidesz MEPs are unaffiliated since they left the European People’s Party (EPP) in 2021 (De La Baume, 2021). It would boost the amount of seats ID holds in the EP, especially since Fidesz continues to be the largest party in Hungary and is predicted to win the elections (Politico, 2024). If that happens, the ID might take a strong pro-China turn, as Hungary is considered an EU Member State closest aligned with China, exemplified by the recent visit of President Xi Jinping in Hungary (Komuves and Boldizsar, 2024).
Conclusions
The Identity and Democracy group in the European Parliament is predicted to gain more seats than currently in the upcoming elections. Although the group, alongside ECR, is one of the most divided groups, there are no plans to change it. It results in various, often contradictory opinions and therefore the group’s approach towards China differs depending on national allegiances. Moreover, ID is predicted to win seats in more countries than currently, which might result in even stronger divisions within the group and even more contradictory standpoints on China amongst MEPs. Even though ID is predicted to be the fourth largest group in the EP, the fragmentation might be the reason why the Group will not be the most efficient in expressing its standpoint on China.
This article does not necessarily reflect the opinions of European Guanxi, its leadership, members, partners, or stakeholders, nor of those of its editors or staff. They have been formulated by the author in their full capacity, and shall not be used for any other purposes other than those they are intended for. European Guanxi assumes no liability or responsibility deriving from the improper use of the contents of this report. Any false facts, errors, and controversial opinions contained in the articles are proper and exclusive of the authors. European Guanxi or its staff and collaborators cannot be held responsible or legally liable for the use of any and all information contained in this document.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Patrycja Kluch is a Vice-Head of the Partnerships and Fundraising Team of the European Guanxi. She studies an MA on International Relations and East Asia at the University of Sheffield, UK, specialising in Chinese politics and Mandarin. Patrycja also pursues an executive diploma in Diplomacy at the European Academy of Diplomacy. In her free time, Patrycja educates about the EU, organising Model European Union simulations around Europe.
This article was edited by Douglas B. Anderson and Angelo M'Ba.
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